Gacha pity probability calculator
Work out your cumulative odds of a pull with a soft-pity/hard-pity system, or how many pulls you'd need for a target chance.
This is a generic model of soft/hard pity mechanics — it doesn't store or claim to match any specific game's actual published rates. Enter your own numbers from that game's documentation for an accurate result.
Per-pull chance is capped at 100% and forced there once hard pity is reached, if you set one. This only models the pity curve itself — not any secondary mechanic (like a 50/50) that decides which specific item you get once a pull succeeds.
No pity system involved? Try the plain drop rate & loot odds calculator.
Report an issue with this calculationWorked example
Say a system has a 0.6% base rate, soft pity starting at pull 74, a 6% increase per pull after that, and hard pity guaranteed at pull 90. After 60 pulls (before soft pity even starts), the cumulative chance is about 30.3%. By pull 74, it's climbed to about 39.8% as soft pity has just begun. By pull 90, it's exactly 100% — hard pity guarantees it.
For a 90% confidence target with those same settings, you'd need about 80 pulls — comfortably before the pull-90 hard-pity guarantee kicks in. For a lower 50% target, around 76 pulls gets you there, since soft pity is already pushing the odds up quickly by that point.
FAQ
What does this model, exactly?
A generic soft-pity system: a flat base rate per pull, which increases by a fixed step each pull once you pass a "soft pity" pull number, optionally capped by a guaranteed "hard pity" pull.
Does this match my specific game's exact rates?
No — you enter your own base rate, soft pity start, increment, and hard pity, based on that game's published rates. This calculator doesn't store or claim any specific game's actual banner numbers.
Is hard pity required?
No — leave it blank if your system doesn't have a guaranteed pull. It's optional.
What happens once hard pity is reached?
The chance for that pull becomes 100% — you're guaranteed the item at that pull number.
Does the rate increase forever after soft pity?
No — it's capped at 100% per pull, and hard pity (if set) guarantees it outright at that pull number.
Where do I find my game's real pity numbers?
This calculator doesn't look them up — check the game's own publisher documentation or a well-sourced community wiki.
How is the "pulls needed" figure calculated?
The smallest number of pulls at which the cumulative chance reaches your target confidence, computed pull by pull using your settings.
What if I don't know my game's soft-pity increment?
Without it, you can't get an accurate soft-pity curve — try setting the increment to 0 to model a flat rate up to hard pity instead, as a rough estimate.
Does this account for a 50/50 (or similar) mechanic on top of pity?
No — this only models the pity curve for getting a pull, not any secondary coin-flip for which specific item you get from it.
Is this the same as the plain drop-odds calculator?
No — the drop rate & loot odds calculator assumes a flat rate with no pity system. Use this one specifically when the game has a soft/hard pity mechanic.